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Leading Through Disruptive Paradigm Shifts – Reston, VA – August 24th, 2018
August 24, 2018 @ 9:00 am - 4:30 pm UTC-5
The rules that applied to the past are not adequate when the foundational paradigm has shifted.
Failure to understand these changes have resulted in dramatic miscalulations.
1. In 2005, the Co-founder of YouTube, Steve Chen said the following:
There’s just not that many videos I want to watch.
He was expressing his concerns about YouTube’s future when he started it in 2005. A year later, he sold it to Google for $1.65 billion dollars.
2. In 2006, David Pogue, from The New York Times said the following:
Everyone’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone. My answer is, ‘Probably never.’
The iPhone came out a year later in 2007.
3. In 1995, The founder of 3Com, Robert Metcalfe, said the following:
I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.
(Robert said he would eat his words if he was wrong. At a conference in 1997, he put his article in a food processor and ate it).
4. In 1981The pioneer of wireless communication Marty Cooper said the following:
Cellular phones will absolutely not replace local wire systems.
5. In 1943 the president of IBM Thomas Watson said the following:
I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.
6. In 1946 Daryl Zanuck from 20th Century Fox said the following:
Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.
7. In 1929, the inventor of the Cinematograph Louis-Jean Lumière said the following:
Talking films are a very interesting invention, but I do not believe they will remain long in fashion.
8. In 1903 The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advised Henry Ford’s lawyer Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company“ because of the following:
The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad.
9. The great Thomas Edison said the following in 1889:
Fooling around with alternating current (AC) is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever.
10. In 1876 William Preece from the British Post Office said the following:
The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.
Just because an expert makes a prediction, doesn’t necessarily mean they’re right… all the time.
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